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A bias is an unconscious, natural and immediate prejudice or tendency to a particular action. Bias-driven decisions may or may not be consistent with that which may result from a more deliberative or thoughtful process. Biases can be harmful: think of prejudices in employment, housing and education. They can be helpful as when we slam on the car brakes to avoid that deer crossing the road. In decision-making, I admit to a prejudice against most fast, “system one<\/a>” decision-making because I’m more comfortable deliberating (a lot<\/a>!) first. Certain biases may be hard-wired into who we are as human beings as a result of evolution. They may be a “design feature”, rather than a flaw<\/a>. Rather than trying to resist biases, can we use them to improve decision-making for ourselves and for others?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To begin to answer this question, I reviewed my list of favorite and most potent biases (Wikipedia<\/a> has more than 170) and compiled some thoughts about how a manager or policy maker or anyone wanting to make wise decisions for themselves might use them to encourage preferred choices. I also wondered how, as a decision maker, citizen and employee, I might guard against self-sabotage and manipulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This table offers some examples of biases that affect decision-making, brief definitions and how we can leverage them to help others (as policymakers and managers) and ourselves make better decisions (choice architecture). Using these biases can be ethically questionable, especially when influencing others (I have asterisked the riskiest ones). It is for these cases and when we want to limit the affect of these biases, such as in negotiations, that I have added some thoughts on how to fight them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Bias<\/strong><\/td>\nDefinition<\/strong><\/td>\nUse it<\/strong><\/td>\nFight it<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ambiguity Aversion<\/td>\nPreference for risks where probabilities are known vs. unknown<\/td>\nIncrease insurance sales by emphasizing risk elimination*<\/td>\nRecognize tendency to over-insure and discount one’s intuition as to correct amount<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Anchoring<\/td>\nWe can be excessively influenced by the starting point or first impression.<\/td>\nSet the default or first choice, e.g., for retirement savings, at levels in line with long-term welfare.<\/td>\nTry different perspectives and starting points; understand how it can be used for negotiation.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Availability<\/td>\nWe can be unduly influenced by the availability in memory of similar examples.<\/td>\nMake evidence supporting the preferred decision salient and easily available.*<\/td>\nObtain\/provide opposing viewpoints and contrary evidence.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bandwagon<\/td>\nPeople tend to accept beliefs of their group.<\/td>\nNote that the preferred choice will put them in the good company.*<\/td>\nStructure group decision making to ensure that divergent opinions are expressed and respected.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Clustering Illusion<\/td>\nWe tend see patterns in random events.<\/td>\nCite trends as evidence for a decision.*<\/td>\nAnalyze the perceived pattern statistically, over different timescales.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Confirmation<\/td>\nWe attend to evidence that confirms our prior beliefs and ignore the other evidence.<\/td>\nPresent preferred choice as consistent with prior beliefs; avoid contradicting strongly held opinions.<\/td>\nSeek out contrary opinions, devil’s advocates and ask neutral questions.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Current Moment<\/td>\nWe prefer to accelerate pleasure and defer pain, which we later regret.<\/td>\nEmphasize the near-term benefits of the preferred decision; provide choices like save more tomorrow<\/a>.<\/td>\nVisualize the future ‘you’ and empathize with them.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Framing<\/td>\nPeople may accept uncritically the way a choice or problem is defined.<\/td>\nDefine a problem in a way that is favorable to the preferred decision.*<\/td>\nReframe a choice or problem from different perspectives.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Halo (horns) effect<\/td>\nOur general impression of something or someone affects our impressions about its specific character or properties.<\/td>\nHave a celebrity endorse the preferred choice.<\/td>\nDon’t overvalue expert opinion; Make decisions objectively, not based (solely) on endorsement; watch for irrelevant generalizations.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Loss aversion<\/td>\nWe can be overcautious and so much more sensitive to losses than gains that we miss opportunities.<\/td>\nEmphasize costs and risks of non-preferred choices. Present desired alternative as reducing costs.<\/td>\nMeasure return on risk and cost of reducing risk; set objective criteria\/thresholds for action based on both. Reconsider assumptions and reasoning for conservatism.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Outcome<\/td>\nWe judge decisions based on the outcomes, rather than the decision process.<\/td>\nIf possible, note how outcomes in similar, past situations have been positive.*<\/td>\nBuild a habit and consensus of judging decisions on process not outcomes.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Placebo<\/td>\nThe mere belief in a positive outcome can increase the likelihood of a good result.<\/td>\nPost-decision, reinforce a belief in a positive outcome.<\/td>\nUnderstand legitimate cause\/effect linkages.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Recency<\/td>\nWe tend to weigh latest data more heavily.<\/td>\nMake your most important point last.<\/td>\nReview historical data and perform scenarios analyses.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Representativeness<\/td>\nPeople assume the probability of an event will be the same as that of another event which seems comparable.<\/td>\nMake an analogy between the preferred choice and something attractive.*<\/td>\nWatch for irrelevant comparisons and stereotyping.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Salience<\/td>\nWe tend to exaggerate the likelihood and relevance of emotional events.<\/td>\nProvide vivid and compelling information supportive of the desired choice.<\/td>\nHave objective data on probabilities of events and outcomes.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sunk Cost<\/td>\nIncorporating past investment decisions into current ones (“throwing good money after bad”).<\/td>\nRemind people of the commitment and investments they’ve already made that is consistent with preferred choice.*<\/td>\nIgnore prior investments.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

In short, we know a lot about what can get in the way of good decision-making. We can use these biases to nudge or trick ourselves and others into making better decisions. Especially as managers and policymakers, we ought to use these powerful tools conservatively, thoughtfully and respectfully. And we can pro-actively invest time, slow down and engage our full intellectual capacities in important decisions to offset unhelpful\u00a0biases and those who might use them to influence us against our interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other references:<\/strong>
www.businessinsider.com\/cognitive-biases-that-affect-decisions-2015-8<\/a>
www.Changingminds.org<\/a>
io9.com\/5974468\/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational<\/a>
Lowry, Alex. No Problem<\/em>, Worksheet C.1, Avoiding Psychological Traps
http:\/\/thenextweb.com\/lifehacks\/2015\/09\/26\/5-cognitive-biases-that-are-killing-your-decisions\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ambiguity aversion added March 21, 2016.<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A bias is an unconscious, natural and immediate prejudice or tendency to a particular action. Bias-driven decisions may or may not be consistent with that which may result from a more deliberative or thoughtful process. Biases can be harmful: think of prejudices in employment, housing and education. They can be helpful as when we slam on … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":85,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[115],"tags":[4,5,10,13,14,26,88],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nBias Among Us: How to Influence Others & Ourselves – Decision Fish: Decide For Yourself<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.decisionfish.com\/bias-among-us-how-to-manipulate-others-and-ourselves\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bias Among Us: How to Influence Others & Ourselves – Decision Fish: Decide For Yourself\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A bias is an unconscious, natural and immediate prejudice or tendency to a particular action. 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