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{"id":354,"date":"2015-12-22T16:08:13","date_gmt":"2015-12-22T21:08:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/decisionfish.com\/?p=354"},"modified":"2022-08-01T17:20:23","modified_gmt":"2022-08-01T21:20:23","slug":"how-i-got-it-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.decisionfish.com\/how-i-got-it-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"How to &#8216;Architect&#8217; Your Investment Behavior"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I took my annual look at my investments this week, and boy did I get it wrong. <strong>A few years ago, I determined I should have about 70% of my investments in equities. Instead, as of yesterday, I had less than 60%.&nbsp;<\/strong> Most of the excess was in cash, earning essentially nothing&nbsp;and missing out on the 2.5% returns of <a href=\"http:\/\/quotes.morningstar.com\/chart\/fund\/chart.action?t=VTSAX&amp;region=usa&amp;culture=en-US\">stocks<\/a>&nbsp;this year, my procrastination penalty.<\/p>\n<p>As an (ex-)investment banker who has made a career of&nbsp;applying the latest research in behavioral economics and decision science to real world problems,<strong> how could I explain (if not excuse) this lapse?<\/strong> More importantly, how could I prevent it from happening again?<\/p>\n<p>I think there are several hurdles that I failed to clear. Maybe some of them will&nbsp;be familiar to you too:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Loss aversion:<\/strong> I didn\u2019t want to lose money. Putting my dollars in equities to get my allocation would mean risking a loss;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Default heuristic:<\/strong>&nbsp;It was easy to stick with the default choice of doing nothing last year;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Procrastination:<\/strong> I knew last year that I needed to update my financial plan, which, for me, required a lot of heavy-duty thinking and a big Excel model. I told myself I didn&#8217;t have the time;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mortality aversion:<\/strong> Thinking about retirement naturally means making assumptions about life expectancy and what my later (declining) years may be like.&nbsp; Yuck;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Choice overload:<\/strong> There are 1,400 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ici.org\/etf_resources\/background\/faqs_etfs_market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ETF<\/a>s and 7,200 mutual funds. Investment decision-making can be simply overwhelming;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Mistrust:<\/strong> Flash-crashes, Ponzi schemes, unreliable Federal Reserve <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2015-10-27\/hsbc-the-fed-s-dot-plot-is-destructively-deceptive\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forecasts<\/a>, regulations that limit financial market liquidity, sometimes makes me wonder whether those that run the financial system really know what they&#8217;re doing; and<\/li>\n<li><strong>Financial media:<\/strong>&nbsp;as usual, the media offered noise and distraction, focusing on historical performance and making essentially worthless forecasts for the coming year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Since I&#8217;ve been thinking about decision tools, I decided to build a pretty simple one to help me clear these hurdles. Here&#8217;s how it works:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Estimate monthly income and expenses until a few years after our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/planners\/lifeexpectancy.html\">life expectancy<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>This results in annual additions to, and then withdrawals&nbsp;from, savings (after retirement).<\/li>\n<li>I made an assumption that I would use more equities to save for withdrawals&nbsp;in the distant future than in the nearer future. For the mid-term I&#8217;ll use bonds and for the short-run, cash (see chart below).<\/li>\n<li>Then, I multiply the allocations by the future withdrawals&nbsp;and add&nbsp;each up to get the amounts I need to invest today in each asset class to cover my future spending.*<\/li>\n<li>Finally, I make some very conservative investment return assumptions and&nbsp;adjust our spending (or delay retirement) so that I don&#8217;t run out of money.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<figure id=\"attachment_361\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-361\" style=\"width: 786px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-361 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/decisionfish.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Capture.png?resize=796%2C306\" alt=\"Investment Allocations\" width=\"796\" height=\"306\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.decisionfish.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Capture.png?w=796&amp;ssl=1 796w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.decisionfish.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Capture.png?resize=300%2C115&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.decisionfish.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Capture.png?resize=768%2C295&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.decisionfish.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/Capture.png?resize=192%2C74&amp;ssl=1 192w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 796px) 100vw, 796px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-361\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The left chart shows today asset allocations, which are derived from looking at each year&#8217;s expenses as something to save for separately, using investments that range from mostly cash in the early years, fixed income (bonds) in the middle years and equities (stocks) in the later years (right chart.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote><p>The best investors understand how to minimize their own irrationality&#8230;<sup>**<\/sup><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That&#8217;s it. <strong>Now that the architecture of my annual planning is set up, it should be easy for me to update and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/rebalancing.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rebalance <\/a>pretty automatically, reducing the risk of procrastination.<\/strong>&nbsp; In essence, this plan is my new default. I have already <a href=\"http:\/\/decisionfish.com\/can-robots-save-us\/\">written<\/a> about how robo-advisors can make this automatic. If I had automatically kept to my 70% equities target, that&nbsp;would have more than paid the fees last year. That said, I think I can use this plan avoid making the same mistake next year and save those fees. Or am I (still)&nbsp;suffering from <a href=\"http:\/\/decisionfish.com\/bias-among-us-how-to-manipulate-others-and-ourselves\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">overconfidence<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p>Happy holidays!<\/p>\n<p>PS. If you&#8217;d like a copy of the Excel model I described to play with, just <a href=\"https:\/\/www.decisionfish.com\/contact-us\/\">drop me a line<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><small>*Actually, I calculated a present value, discounted on the asset class&#8217; expected returns.<br \/>\n**http:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/avoiding-forced-irrationality\/<\/small><\/p>\n<p><strong>References:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/avoiding-forced-irrationality\/\">http:\/\/awealthofcommonsense.com\/avoiding-forced-irrationality\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ted.com\/talks\/barry_schwartz_on_the_paradox_of_choice?language=en#t-38103\">http:\/\/www.ted.com\/talks\/barry_schwartz_on_the_paradox_of_choice?language=en#t-38103<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.fiduciarynews.com\/2013\/04\/3-bad-reasons-401k-investors-are-over-cautious\/\">http:\/\/www.fiduciarynews.com\/2013\/04\/3-bad-reasons-401k-investors-are-over-cautious\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/novelinvestor.com\/an-under-invested-america-is-conservative-the-new-norm\/\">https:\/\/novelinvestor.com\/an-under-invested-america-is-conservative-the-new-norm\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I took my annual look at my investments this week, and boy did I get it wrong. A few years ago, I determined I should have about 70% of my investments in equities. Instead, as of yesterday, I had less than 60%.&nbsp; Most of the excess was in cash, earning essentially nothing&nbsp;and missing out on &#8230; <a title=\"How to &#8216;Architect&#8217; Your Investment Behavior\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.decisionfish.com\/how-i-got-it-wrong\/\" aria-label=\"More on How to &#8216;Architect&#8217; Your Investment Behavior\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":369,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[102],"tags":[56,4,5,10,11,41,39,16,22,40],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How to &#039;Architect&#039; Your Investment Behavior &#8211; Decision Fish: Decide For Yourself<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.decisionfish.com\/how-i-got-it-wrong\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to &#039;Architect&#039; Your Investment Behavior &#8211; Decision Fish: Decide For Yourself\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I took my annual look at my investments this week, and boy did I get it wrong. A few years ago, I determined I should have about 70% of my investments in equities. Instead, as of yesterday, I had less than 60%.&nbsp; Most of the excess was in cash, earning essentially nothing&nbsp;and missing out on ... 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