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“Do you know what you want?” <\/strong>Those six, dreaded words haunt my otherwise happy memory of a meal my friends and I enjoyed to celebrate graduating from university. It seemed such an important occasion: I wanted to get my menu selection exactly right. You can imagine the groans around the table after the third or fourth postponement of what should have been a trivial decision.<\/p>\n

See https:\/\/heathbrothers.com\/books\/decisive\/<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Even after years of studying and teaching decision-making and behavioral economics, I still occasionally stress out over even little decisions. So, I had high hopes for Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work<\/a><\/em> by Chip and Dan Heath. Would it make me more decisive? That is, more able to make decisions quickly and confidently, without second-guessing, regrets or anxiety?<\/p>\n

My answer: Maybe a little, under some circumstances. The Heath brothers offer a bunch of reasonable and evidence-based ideas for making decision-making more “rational.” Here are a few of them, with my take on each.<\/p>\n

Widen your options.<\/b><\/h3>\n

If you want to make better decisions, first make sure you’re considering enough alternatives. If a decision is framed as “Whether or not to do X,” it’s is likely a sign that you haven’t considered all the options. To come up with alternatives, think about the second-best use of the money (or time or other resources) or pretend the option(s) you’re considering aren’t feasible: what would you do otherwise? Explore what others have done in similar or analogous situations.<\/p>\n

If your goal is to optimize your decision (and not just satisfice i.e., get to “good enough”), then widening options makes a lot of sense. I suggest brainstorming with diverse participants to come up with different options.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, there are many circumstances, like the restaurant ordering experience I mentioned above, where optimizing is clearly not<\/em> the right strategy. The author does not discuss when and how to use rules of thumb (heuristics) and intuition to decide quickly. I have written before<\/a> about how these techniques can be better when time and information are limited, or when we’ve had a lot of relevant experience.<\/p>\n

Reality-test your assumptions. <\/b><\/h3>\n

The Heaths argue that you can’t make a good decision if you begin with false assumptions. My decision to start a business<\/a> would surely be doomed if it were based on a mistaken view that there would be little competition. To test assumptions, you should “spark constructive disagreement” by making it easier for people to disagree with you, asking questions designed to surface contrary information and checking yourself by considering the opposite decision. When I was considering the startup, I asked for candid advice from people I knew would give it to me straight. The feedback I got helped me set (slightly) more realistic expectations and improve my planning.<\/p>\n

Who could argue against reality-testing? What better way to fight confirmation bias <\/a>and the planning <\/a>and sunk cost fallacies<\/a>? However, reality testing can be time-consuming, subject to diminishing returns, and contrary to the goal of deciding quickly.
\n<\/b><\/p>\n

Attain distance before deciding.<\/b><\/h3>\n

The authors advise us to view the decision as objectively, dispassionately and from as broad of a perspective as possible. It is natural to make decisions based on our personal experience, the “inside view.” To avoid suffering from “What We See is All There Is (WYSIATI)<\/a>,” it’s better to consider the ‘outside view’, such as the historical experience or the typical characteristics of the factors in the decision. I could have asked which dish diners order or compliment the most, which may be better than trying to predict what I’ll like best.<\/p>\n

Ideally, if we have lots of time and reliable information, we can update our beliefs according to a mathematical formula, such as Bayes theorem<\/a>. We can also consider the decision from other points of view, especially those of people affected by the decision, but who don’t have a say in it. For example, I may avoid the swordfish and tuna since they may be environmentally unsustainable.<\/p>\n

Reduce emotion. <\/b><\/h3>\n

The Health brothers also suggest we attain emotional distance from our decisions. They note that immediate emotions and knee-jerk reactions can be misleading. Attaining distance by making the decision more abstract should make it less emotional and perhaps more rational. Other related tactics include:<\/p>\n