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Our decisions, and the actions they lead to, make us who we are. In that sense, decisions are fundamental to our identities, our humanity and even the future of our planet<\/a>. But what is a good decision and how do we get great at making them? I want to share with you my answers to these questions in the form of my proposal to participate in Freakonomics podcast’s Peak project<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn fact, researchers have settled on what they believe is the magic number for true expertise: ten thousand hours.\u201d – Malcolm Gladwell<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

What do you think?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Dear Mr. Dubner,<\/h2>\n

The recent Freakonomics Radio <\/i>episode \u201cHow to Become Great at Just About Anything<\/b><\/a>,\u201d on the power of deliberate practice, following popularization of the “10,000 hour rule” in Malcolm Gladwell’s bestseller Outliers<\/a>, led me to wonder: is decision-making an improvable skill like piano playing? Will the right kind of practice, “deliberate practice”, make me an expert? I propose to design and execute a program of deliberate practice to become a great decision-maker.<\/p>\n

Motivation<\/h2>\n

I’ve always thought myself, and been told by helpful colleagues, friends and family, that I am decision-challenged<\/a>. I’m subject to bouts of analysis-paralysis and second-guessing that are not just annoying to myself and those around me but could also impair my effectiveness as an entrepreneur, educator and parent. That’s why I’ve been teaching, studying and blogging<\/a> about decision science and behavioral economics: so that I can get better at making decisions.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, the mission<\/a> of my company, Decision Fish, is to empower consumers to make better financial decisions. I’ll be teaching a new course at CCNY’s MPA program<\/a> this fall, “Public Economics and Decision Making.” I need to model good decision making for my teenage children. I really need to become that expert because I really want to make an “eminent contribution” to our society.<\/p>\n

That’s why I am applying to participate in the Peak Project. But what does expert decision-making \u2014 and a deliberate practice program to achieve it \u2014 look like?<\/p>\n

Expert Decision Making<\/h1>\n

An ideal decision results from a systematic process with limited scope for counter-productive cognitive biases<\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n

A wise decision:<\/b><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Uses information<\/b> and advice efficiently<\/li>\n
  2. Considers all reasonable and feasible alternatives <\/b><\/li>\n
  3. Projects the possible outcomes<\/b> of those alternatives<\/li>\n
  4. Calculates the relative costs and benefits<\/b> of those outcomes<\/li>\n
  5. Translates benefits and costs in terms of your values<\/b><\/li>\n
  6. Adjusts outcomes for their respective probabilities<\/b><\/li>\n
  7. Recommends <\/strong>the alternative with the best probability-adjusted net benefit or lowest cost<\/li>\n
  8. Respects feelings<\/b> and intuitions, especially moral\/ethical considerations<\/li>\n
  9. Uses appropriate decision support tools <\/b>and heuristics<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    An expert decision-maker will use this process consistently and effectively. This will increase the likelihood of\u2014but won’t guarantee\u2014good outcomes.<\/p>\n

    Applying Deliberate Practice<\/h1>\n

    Ericsson, et al’s seminal paper, “The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance<\/a>“, argues that innate talent matters much less in the development of expert abilities than prolonged, hard practice that is carefully designed to improve performance (“deliberate practice”).  They find that expert performance requires resources, motivation and effort over ten years or longer.<\/p>\n

    I propose a period of deliberate practice of six to twelve months, intended to show quantifiable improvement in decision quality.<\/strong> My specific goal is to develop a habit of using the best practices I’ve outlined above effectively and for every important decision. To succeed:<\/p>\n